MH370 went west - the Sergio Cavaiuolo scenario

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The true path of MH370, based on Handshake Round Trip Time (HRTT). Source: Cavaiuolo 2022.

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Contents

1. Getting it wrong
2. The Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) interpretation
3. The Sergio Cavaiuolo interpretation
4. Cavaiuolo videos
5. References
   

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1. Getting it wrong

Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 did not fly south towards Antarctica on the morning of 8 March 2014. It flew west towards the Maldive Islands. There are three significant elements of evidence for this:

1. Multiple sightings of the plane flying low over the Maldives at 6.15am local time (9.15am Malaysian time) on the morning of the disappearance of flight MH370.
2. Close proximity of the debris from the plane which was subsequently found, including a flaperon from the wing.
3. Analysis of the Inmarsat data by Australian engineer Sergio Cavaiuolo between 2014-2022, based on the most simple and logical element, namely the Handshake Round Trip Time (HRTT).

Ten days after the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 on 8 March 2014, a set of satellite data from the British Inmarsat firm was released. The raw data, or rather metadata, was then interpreted in such a way as to imply that the airplane left the Strait of Malacca north of the Indonesian island of Sumatra and turned south towards Antarctica, where it eventually crashed into the sea off the west coast of Australia around 9.34am. Ten years later - 2024 - this remains the official scenario promoted by the investigating authorities in Malaysia and Australia, despite the fact that no evidence has ever been found that the plane ended its journey there. There was no debris field, no plane, no bodies, and no black boxes ever found. The final landing or crash site has never been located.

The only 'evidence' that MH370 flew south is that of the original interpretation of the Inmarsat data which, at the time, was pointed out as novel and presented with a degree of uncertainty as the process of interpreting the data in this manner had never been done before. Despite this, the authorities embraced the interpretation, spending the next three years undertaking the most extensive and expensive ocean-based search ever launched. All to no avail. Over the years since then they have refused to consider any alternate interpretations, namely, that the plane did not go south. It is as though they have been told not to look elsewhere - mostly likely by the United States - giving rise to a belief amongst family and friends of those on board that there is some sort of coverup and that they will never discover the true fate of their missing loved ones. The coverup is real. The truth is known but secreted away, hidden, perhaps never to be revealed.....

In the face of the mysterious disappearance of the Boeing 777 aircraft with 239 people on board, investigative journalists, professionals and experts in the various fields of aviation and amateur sleuths have found enough evidence to reject the official scenario. They have done two things: (1) looked dispassionately at ALL the available evidence; and (2) provided alternate, rational and reasonable alternatives based on the available evidence. A perfect example of this is the work of Australian engineer, Sergio Cavaiuolo, since 2014 in questioning the initial Inmarsat data interpretation and exposing an alternate, more scientific and therefore more correct, interpretation. The plane did not go south. It went west, as shown in the following diagram from a 125 page document issued by that engineer in 2022, and as indicated by the HRTT rings.

Interpretation of the Inmarsat data for MH370. Source: Cavaiuolo 2022.

As this article is being written (April 2024) various parties talk of reopening the search in the same basic location i.e., the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). In the opinion of the present author, they are looking in the wrong place. In fact, within a few weeks after the plane had going missing, Cavaiuolo posited that the it flew west and provided detailed evidence to support that. This was also supported by the fact that MH370 was seen by a number of people (15 made public statements) flying over the Maldive Islands early in the morning of 8 March 2014, before finally disappearing. In addition, debris began appearing in that part of the world and along the nearby coasts of Africa and Madagascar, making up a debris field where none was ever found in the SIO. Despite the extensive search, the public was told that ALL the debris flowed west towards Africa and NONE remained in the SIO area where the plane supposedly crashed, or along the nearby coast of Australia where it was expected a large amount of it would end up. All of the few items found ended up on the region of the Maldives and the coasts of Madagascar and Africa. Such an assertion by the authorities beggars belief. Yet it is just one element of the official narrative that is adhered to despite evidence to the contrary. The multiple sightings at the Maldives is simply ignore.

Cavaiuolo developed his alternate interpretation of the Inmarsat data during April 2014 and a copy of the Executive Summary of his original assessment, updated as of 16 August 2015, is available online here. That assessment, and its various updates, was forwarded to the relevant investigating authorities in Malaysia and Australia at various points over the following years, culminating in the comprehensive 125 page analysis dated October 2022, freely available as The Path to Flight MH370 online, with additional information provided at his website Found MH370 and through various social media platforms such as Twitter / X, Facebook and Reddit.

What has been the result of Cavaiuolo's extensive research and engagement with the authorities and wider community? Nothing. Zero. It has comprehensively been ignored, not only by those authorities, but by that large community of so-called experts and amateur sleuths looking into the mysterious disappearance of MH370. It would therefore appear that it was shut down as part of the high level official coverup surrounding the disappearance of MH370 - a coverup that was evident to the public and media alike from the get go in the weeks following 8 March 2014. This article aims to address that coverup by providing access to Cavaiuolo's findings and offering a simplified summary of some of the complex detail prior to any deeper dive one should seek to make.

During 2023, a posting on Reddit by r/AirlineAbduction2014 raised the subject of the Cavaiuolo discovery and generally supported the analysis. It was titled Massive new lead: Inmarsat data has been wrong all along - Incompetence or cover up? - peer reviewed report goes over the actual location of MH370.

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2. The standard Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) interpenetration

The two main reports on the missing flight MH370 - one by the Australian Transport Safety Board and another by a Malaysian-sponsored international group of investigators - contain detailed information on the Inmarsat data interpretations. The following videos and other material further explain that.

* Search zeroing in on Southern Indian Ocean, CNN, 16 March 2014, YouTube, duration: 4.23 minutes.

* MH370: How British satellite company Inmarsat tracked down missing Malaysia Airlines plane, The Telegraph, 25 March 2014, YouTube, duration: 2.14 minutes.

* What will the Inmarsat data from flight MH370 reveal?, CNN, 21 May 2014, YouTube, duration: 2.02 minutes.

* Inmarsat data on MH370 but no analysis, CNN, 22 July 2016, YouTube, duration: 1.27 minutes. Inmarsat releases the raw data, but not the analysis.

That initial interpretation has been accepted and regurgitated ad nauseam over the years since the disappearance, with no real critical analysis of any alternative interpretation, of which there only appears to have been the one by the Australian.

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3. Reinterpreting the Inmarsat data

Sergio Cavaiuolo almost immediately saw a problem with the interpretation of the Inmarsat data when it was publically released in March 2014. In a nutshell he considered, or discovered, that the mathematical formula used, and developed over the following months, was wrong. The latter was basically developed to support an erroneous initial reading of the data. Cavaiuolo's interpretation was, in contrast, a simple, logical analysis of the data. It, like that official interpretation, came up with a series of 7 rings based on the handshake data; it presented a new route of the plane based on that data; and it supported the Maldive Islands sighting of the plane as noted above, and the subsequent discovery of debris in the region. It remains a complete mystery why the authorities never supported Cavaiuolo's call for a search in the area he pointed out, and never gave any official reason why they ignored the information he provided. The silence was deafening, and remains so. The only explanation appears to be that there is a high-level coverup.

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4. Sergio Cavaiuolo videos

Since 2018, Sergio Cavaiuolo has released three videos on YouTube pertaining to his analysis of the Inmarsat data. They are linked below and from his official website Found MH370.

* Sergio Cavaiuolo, MH370 location found path to wreckage, Sergio Cavaiuolo, 17 July 2018, YouTube, duration: 74.44 minutes.

* Sergio Cavaiuolo, SV1:'The Path To Flight MH370' Sergio's New Report Brief to NOK/OI/GG on 11Oct2020, Sergio Cavaiuolo, 5 November 2020, YouTube, duration: 26.35 minutes.

* Sergio Cavaiuolo, The path to flight MH370 part 2 - search in the Maldives-Veymandoo Channel along the atoll coastlines, Sergio Cavaiuolo, 1 March 2021, YouTube, duration: 15.19 minutes.

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5. References

Australian Transport Safety Bureau, The Operational Search for MH370, Transport Safety Report - External Aviation Investigation, Australian Transport Safety Bureau, Canberra, 3 October 2017, 440p.

Cavaiuolo, Sergio, Found MH370 [website], 2015.

-----, Found MH370, Facebook, 20 April 2015.

-----, Sergio, @FoundMH370, Twitter / X, April 2015.

-----, sergionc (u/sergionc), Reddit, 27 April 2015.

-----, Found MH370, Reddit, 2015.

-----, MH370 location found path to wreckage, Sergio Cavaiuolo, 17 July 2018, YouTube, duration: 74.44 minutes.

-----, SV1:'The Path To Flight MH370' Sergio's New Report Brief to NOK/OI/GG on 11Oct2020, Sergio Cavaiuolo, 5 November 2020, YouTube, duration: 26.35 minutes.

-----, The path to flight MH370 part 2 - search in the Maldives-Veymandoo Channel along the atoll coastlines, Sergio Cavaiuolo, 1 March 2020, YouTube, duration: 15.19 minutes.

-----, The Path to Flight MH370, 8 March 2022, The Author, 125p.

-----, Appendix 1: HRTT Analysis of MH371 satellite data (9M-MRO's previous flight) [7 March 2014], 4 April 2022, The Author, 14p.

Malaysian Government, Safety Investigation Report - Malaysian Airlines Boeing B777-200ER (9M-MRO) 08 March 2014, The Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370, 2 July 2018, 495p.

r/AirlineAbduction2014, Massive new lead: Inmarsat data has been wrong all along - Incompetence or cover up? - peer reviewed report goes over the actual location of MH370, Reddit, 2023.

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MH370 : | A fictional scenario | MH370 | Russia & China | Sergio Cavaiuolo analysis | TR-3B | Video presentation |

Last updated: 14 April 2024

Michael Organ, Australia (Home)